Thunder vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 2
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Tuesday, February 2 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 56% chance to win and projects a 114-112 score (Thunder – Nuggets), about 226 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Cameron Johnson (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Nuggets 112 – 114 Thunder, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCDEN
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsNuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96DEN
121-106L
96-84W
141-135 OTL
134-114W104-91Head-to-head
OKC lead 1-0 this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 119.2 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 116.2 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.6 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 2-2 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 54-28 (+5.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.