Nuggets vs Thunder prediction NBA · Saturday, January 30
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Saturday, January 30 at 3:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 70% chance to win and projects a 110-116 score (Nuggets – Thunder), about 226 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Thunder L1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Jalen Williams (Thunder) and Alex Caruso (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Thunder 116 – 110 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.4 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENOKC
Players to watch
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
DEN
121-106L
96-84W
141-135 OTL
134-114W104-91OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96Head-to-head
OKC lead 1-0 this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DEN | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 119.2 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 116.2 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| +2.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 2-2 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 54-28 (+5.2) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.