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Raptors vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 2

Tue, Feb 2 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

117-109

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

73% win TORwin DAL 27%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin7.6

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Tuesday, February 2 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 73% chance to win and projects a 117-109 score (Raptors – Mavericks), about 226 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Raptors start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 109 – 117 Raptors, a margin of about 7.6 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / TOR +5.0 per game

-7.8

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-7.6

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Raptors win by 10+

43%

Stat comparison Current season

TORDAL

115.4

Points scored / game

114.1

109.5

Points allowed / game

117.4

44.2 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

30.4 %

3-point %

34.6 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

79.0 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

27.3

Assists / game

27.6

14.3

Steals / game

9.0

5.5

Blocks / game

7.4

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 73% · DAL 27%

ESPN BPI

TOR 61% · DAL 39%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		DAL
3-1	Record	3-2
115.4	Points scored / game	114.1
109.5	Points allowed / game	117.4
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W1	Current streak	W2
3-1	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.