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Mavericks vs Raptors prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 27

Wed, Jan 27 · 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

107-119

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

16% win DALwin TOR 84%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin12.2

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Wednesday, January 27 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 84% chance to win and projects a 107-119 score (Mavericks – Raptors), about 226 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Raptors W1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Raptors start with a clear edge. The model projects Raptors 119 – 107 Mavericks, a margin of about 12.2 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / DAL -2.8 per game

+7.8

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Raptors

+12.2

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

57%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALTOR

114.1

Points scored / game

115.4

117.4

Points allowed / game

109.5

49.0 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

34.6 %

3-point %

30.4 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

76.7 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

45.8

27.6

Assists / game

27.3

9.0

Steals / game

14.3

7.4

Blocks / game

5.5

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 16% · TOR 84%

ESPN BPI

DAL 30% · TOR 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		TOR
3-2	Record	3-1
114.1	Points scored / game	115.4
117.4	Points allowed / game	109.5
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
W2	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	3-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.