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Lakers vs Celtics prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 2

Tue, Feb 2 · 8:00 PM ETTD Garden · NBC
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
110-117
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
3-1 · home
29% win LALwin BOS 71%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin7.0
Projected total227
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Tuesday, February 2 at 8:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 71% chance to win and projects a 110-117 score (Lakers – Celtics), about 227 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Celtics W3, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Lakers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Celtics 117 – 110 Lakers, a margin of about 7.0 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / LAL +3.5 per game
+3.1
Home-court advantageCeltics at home
+2.3
InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable
+1.6
Expected marginfor Celtics
+7.0

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+
41%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Lakers win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison Current season

LALBOS
118.4
Points scored / game
116.1
114.3
Points allowed / game
108.3
52.9 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
39.2 %
3-point %
38.6 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
41.5
79.1 %
Free throw %
76.0 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
44.3
24.0
Assists / game
27.8
10.8
Steals / game
9.0
5.8
Blocks / game
3.8
16.6
Turnovers / game
15.5

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Celtics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game
Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists
Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
BOS
WPHI125-120 OTLDET121-113WNY107-103WCHI134-99WBKN125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 7BOSupcomingLALFeb 2LALthis gameBOS

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 29% · BOS 71%
ESPN BPI
LAL 40% · BOS 61%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALBOS
4-1Record3-1
118.4Points scored / game116.1
114.3Points allowed / game108.3
+3.5Adjusted margin / game+6.6
W1Current streakW3
4-1Last 10 games3-1
2-0 roadHome / road record3-0 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season56-26 (+7.7)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Boston Celtics Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.