Celtics vs Lakers prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7
At a glance
The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Thursday, January 7 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 58% chance to win and projects a 115-112 score (Celtics – Lakers), about 227 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Lakers W1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Lakers 112 – 115 Celtics, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
BOSLAL
Players to watch
Celtics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / gameJayson TatumF · #08.0assistsJayson TatumF · #06.2reboundsLakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / gameLuka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2reboundsRecent form
BOS
125-120 OTL
121-113W
107-103W
134-99W
125-124 OTLAL
127-105W
125-117W
132-123L
136-129W103-87
BOS
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| BOS | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 116.1 | Points scored / game | 118.4 |
| 108.3 | Points allowed / game | 114.3 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.5 |
| W3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 56-26 (+7.7) | Last season | 53-29 (+1.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Celtics
Injury report Lakers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.