Grizzlies vs Bucks prediction NBA · Monday, February 1
At a glance
The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Monday, February 1 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 57% chance to win and projects a 117-115 score (Grizzlies – Bucks), about 231 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Bucks L1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Bucks 115 – 117 Grizzlies, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MEMMIL
Players to watch
Grizzlies
Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / gameTy JeromeG · #26.5assists
Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5reboundsBucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / gameTyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4reboundsRecent form
MEM
116-98W
123-103W
111-108W
123-112W110-105MIL
128-116L
132-125L
127-116W
110-102L
132-100
MIL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| MEM | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| 115.2 | Points scored / game | 111.4 |
| 117.3 | Points allowed / game | 119.0 |
| -1.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -6.4 |
| W4 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-0 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 3-0 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 25-57 (-6.0) | Last season | 32-50 (-6.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Grizzlies
Injury report Bucks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.