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Bucks vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Saturday, December 12

Sat, Dec 12 · 5:00 PM ETFedExForum · NBA TV, MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

112-119

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

29% win MILwin MEM 71%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin7.0

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Saturday, December 12 at 5:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 71% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Bucks – Grizzlies), about 231 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Grizzlies 119 – 112 Bucks, a margin of about 7.0 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' offense (115.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / MIL -6.4 per game

+4.7

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+7.0

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Bucks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MILMEM

111.4

Points scored / game

115.2

119.0

Points allowed / game

117.3

44.9 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

34.0 %

3-point %

39.1 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

71.6 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

50.0

24.6

Assists / game

25.0

5.8

Steals / game

6.3

4.0

Blocks / game

6.3

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 29% · MEM 71%

ESPN BPI

MIL 33% · MEM 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		MEM
1-4	Record	4-0
111.4	Points scored / game	115.2
119.0	Points allowed / game	117.3
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L1	Current streak	W4
1-4	Last 10 games	4-0
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.