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Heat vs Pacers prediction NBA · Monday, February 1

Mon, Feb 1 · 7:30 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · NBCSN

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

119-114

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

67% win MIAwin IND 33%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin5.5

Projected total233

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Monday, February 1 at 7:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 67% chance to win and projects a 119-114 score (Heat – Pacers), about 233 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Pacers L2, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 114 – 119 Heat, a margin of about 5.5 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / MIA -0.6 per game

-4.2

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 4 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-3.6

Expected marginfor Pacers

-5.5

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Heat win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAIND

118.6

Points scored / game

113.2

119.2

Points allowed / game

118.8

45.3 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

31.7 %

3-point %

31.2 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

71.7 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

44.0

27.0

Assists / game

29.4

8.4

Steals / game

6.4

5.4

Blocks / game

4.8

14.2

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 67% · IND 33%

ESPN BPI

MIA 45% · IND 55%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIA		IND
1-4	Record	2-3
118.6	Points scored / game	113.2
119.2	Points allowed / game	118.8
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
W1	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.