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Pacers vs Heat prediction NBA · Friday, October 30

Fri, Oct 30 · 8:00 PM ETKaseya Center · NBA League Pass, DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-122

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

21% win INDwin MIA 79%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin10.1

Projected total233

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Friday, October 30 at 8:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 79% chance to win and projects a 112-122 score (Pacers – Heat), about 233 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Heat W1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Heat start with a clear edge. The model projects Heat 122 – 112 Pacers, a margin of about 10.1 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / IND -4.7 per game

+4.2

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · IND: 4 out, 1 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Heat

+10.1

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

50%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDMIA

113.2

Points scored / game

118.6

118.8

Points allowed / game

119.2

47.1 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

31.2 %

3-point %

31.7 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

72.7 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

42.8

29.4

Assists / game

27.0

6.4

Steals / game

8.4

4.8

Blocks / game

5.4

14.8

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 21% · MIA 79%

ESPN BPI

IND 26% · MIA 74%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		MIA
2-3	Record	1-4
113.2	Points scored / game	118.6
118.8	Points allowed / game	119.2
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
L2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.