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Rockets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Sunday, January 31

Sun, Jan 31 · 8:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · NBC

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

118-109

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

75% win HOUwin DAL 25%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin8.4

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Sunday, January 31 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 75% chance to win and projects a 118-109 score (Rockets – Mavericks), about 227 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 109 – 118 Rockets, a margin of about 8.4 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). The Rockets will be without Marcus Smart or Steven Adams.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / HOU +6.7 per game

-9.5

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 3 out, 2 questionable · HOU: 2 out, 1 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-8.4

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Rockets win by 10+

45%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUDAL

117.5

Points scored / game

114.1

109.7

Points allowed / game

117.4

51.7 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

40.4 %

3-point %

34.6 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

84.7 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

28.2

Assists / game

27.6

10.2

Steals / game

9.0

6.0

Blocks / game

7.4

15.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

HOU lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 75% · DAL 25%

ESPN BPI

HOU 64% · DAL 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		DAL
5-0	Record	3-2
117.5	Points scored / game	114.1
109.7	Points allowed / game	117.4
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W5	Current streak	W2
5-0	Last 10 games	3-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.