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Mavericks vs Rockets prediction NBA · Friday, January 1

Fri, Jan 1 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

107-120

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

16% win DALwin HOU 84%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin12.7

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Friday, January 1 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 84% chance to win and projects a 107-120 score (Mavericks – Rockets), about 227 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Rockets W5, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Reed Sheppard (Rockets) and Marcus Smart (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Rockets 120 – 107 Mavericks, a margin of about 12.7 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / DAL -2.8 per game

+9.5

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Rockets

+12.7

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

59%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALHOU

114.1

Points scored / game

117.5

117.4

Points allowed / game

109.7

49.0 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

34.6 %

3-point %

40.4 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

76.7 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.6

Assists / game

28.2

9.0

Steals / game

10.2

7.4

Blocks / game

6.0

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

HOU lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 16% · HOU 84%

ESPN BPI

DAL 29% · HOU 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		HOU
3-2	Record	5-0
114.1	Points scored / game	117.5
117.4	Points allowed / game	109.7
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W2	Current streak	W5
3-2	Last 10 games	5-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.