Login
Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Hawks vs Bucks prediction NBA · Saturday, January 30

Sat, Jan 30 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
3-3 · away
Projected score
118-113
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 · home
66% win ATLwin MIL 34%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin5.0
Projected total232
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Saturday, January 30 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 66% chance to win and projects a 118-113 score (Hawks – Bucks), about 232 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Bucks L1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bucks 113 – 118 Hawks, a margin of about 5.0 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / ATL +2.7 per game
-9.1
Home-court advantageBucks at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
+1.8
Expected marginfor Bucks
-5.0

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+
11%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Hawks win by 10+
35%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLMIL
119.0
Points scored / game
111.4
115.8
Points allowed / game
119.0
46.9 %
Field goal %
44.9 %
34.8 %
3-point %
34.0 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
41.2
72.8 %
Free throw %
71.6 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
49.8
32.2
Assists / game
24.6
10.2
Steals / game
5.8
3.6
Blocks / game
4.0
14.0
Turnovers / game
16.8

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Bucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game
Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117WCLE114-111
MIL
LWSH128-116LCHI132-125LPHI127-116WIND110-102LHOU132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 15ATLupcomingMILDec 31MILupcomingATLJan 30ATLthis gameMIL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 66% · MIL 34%
ESPN BPI
ATL 73% · MIL 27%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLMIL
2-3Record1-4
119.0Points scored / game111.4
115.8Points allowed / game119.0
+2.7Adjusted margin / game-6.4
L3Current streakL1
2-3Last 10 games1-4
2-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season32-50 (-6.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.