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Bucks vs Hawks prediction NBA · Thursday, December 31

Thu, Dec 31 · 3:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · MyMi, Bucks App
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 · away
Projected score
111-121
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · home
22% win MILwin ATL 78%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin9.6
Projected total232
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Thursday, December 31 at 3:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 78% chance to win and projects a 111-121 score (Bucks – Hawks), about 232 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Hawks L3, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Hawks 121 – 111 Bucks, a margin of about 9.6 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / MIL -6.4 per game
+9.1
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable
-1.8
Expected marginfor Hawks
+9.6

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
49%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Bucks win by 10+
6%

Stat comparison Current season

MILATL
111.4
Points scored / game
119.0
119.0
Points allowed / game
115.8
44.9 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
34.0 %
3-point %
34.8 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
71.6 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
41.4
24.6
Assists / game
32.2
5.8
Steals / game
10.2
4.0
Blocks / game
3.6
16.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Players to watch

Bucks
Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game
Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists
Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
LWSH128-116LCHI132-125LPHI127-116WIND110-102LHOU132-100
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 15ATLupcomingMILDec 31MILthis gameATLJan 30ATLupcomingMIL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIL 22% · ATL 78%
ESPN BPI
MIL 19% · ATL 81%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MILATL
1-4Record2-3
111.4Points scored / game119.0
119.0Points allowed / game115.8
-6.4Adjusted margin / game+2.7
L1Current streakL3
1-4Last 10 games2-3
0-2 roadHome / road record0-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)Last season46-36 (+2.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.