Pelicans vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Saturday, January 30
At a glance
The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Saturday, January 30 at 7:30 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 78% chance to win and projects a 112-121 score (Pelicans – Cavaliers), about 233 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Cavaliers dominate this matchup. The model projects Cavaliers 121 – 112 Pelicans, a margin of about 9.6 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOCLE
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsCavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW121-111
CLE
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 119.6 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| L4 | Current streak | W3 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Cavaliers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.