Cavaliers vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Monday, January 25
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Monday, January 25 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 70% chance to win and projects a 121-114 score (Cavaliers – Pelicans), about 234 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Cavaliers, but the Pelicans have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pelicans 114 – 121 Cavaliers, a margin of about 6.6 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLENO
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111NO107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91
CLE
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W3 | Current streak | L4 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.