Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Spurs vs Warriors prediction NBA · Saturday, January 30

Sat, Jan 30 · 5:30 PM ETChase Center · ABC

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

118-111

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

69% win SAwin GS 31%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin6.4

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Saturday, January 30 at 5:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 69% chance to win and projects a 118-111 score (Spurs – Warriors), about 229 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Warriors W2, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 111 – 118 Spurs, a margin of about 6.4 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / SA +6.6 per game

-7.4

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Warriors

-6.4

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Spurs win by 10+

39%

Stat comparison Current season

SAGS

118.9

Points scored / game

115.5

111.1

Points allowed / game

116.4

46.0 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

36.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

78.3 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

43.8

28.2

Assists / game

25.6

9.8

Steals / game

9.6

6.6

Blocks / game

3.8

12.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 69% · GS 31%

ESPN BPI

SA 65% · GS 35%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		GS
3-2	Record	2-3
118.9	Points scored / game	115.5
111.1	Points allowed / game	116.4
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W3	Current streak	W2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.