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Warriors vs Spurs prediction NBA · Friday, November 13

Fri, Nov 13 · 9:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center · Prime Video

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

109-120

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

19% win GSwin SA 81%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin11.0

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Friday, November 13 at 9:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 81% chance to win and projects a 109-120 score (Warriors – Spurs), about 229 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Spurs W3, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Spurs 120 – 109 Warriors, a margin of about 11.0 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / GS -0.8 per game

+7.4

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Spurs

+11.0

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

53%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Warriors win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

GSSA

115.5

Points scored / game

118.9

116.4

Points allowed / game

111.1

45.0 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

36.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

82.2 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

45.0

25.6

Assists / game

28.2

9.6

Steals / game

9.8

3.8

Blocks / game

6.6

16.8

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 19% · SA 81%

ESPN BPI

GS 18% · SA 82%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		SA
2-3	Record	3-2
115.5	Points scored / game	118.9
116.4	Points allowed / game	111.1
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W2	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.