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Hornets vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Friday, January 29

Fri, Jan 29 · 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · ESPN, DAZN CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

108-116

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

25% win CHAwin MIN 75%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin8.5

Projected total224

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Friday, January 29 at 9:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 75% chance to win and projects a 108-116 score (Hornets – Timberwolves), about 224 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Timberwolves 116 – 108 Hornets, a margin of about 8.5 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / CHA +1.1 per game

+4.1

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+8.5

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

45%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Hornets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHAMIN

111.6

Points scored / game

118.7

110.3

Points allowed / game

112.6

41.7 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

30.6 %

3-point %

38.4 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

85.2 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

51.6

20.6

Assists / game

27.0

6.8

Steals / game

9.2

5.2

Blocks / game

4.4

19.0

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 25% · MIN 75%

ESPN BPI

CHA 25% · MIN 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHA		MIN
3-2	Record	3-2
111.6	Points scored / game	118.7
110.3	Points allowed / game	112.6
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
L1	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.