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Pistons vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Friday, January 29

Fri, Jan 29 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

117-108

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

78% win DETwin DAL 22%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin9.7

Projected total225

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Friday, January 29 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 78% chance to win and projects a 117-108 score (Pistons – Mavericks), about 225 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 108 – 117 Pistons, a margin of about 9.7 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / DET +6.5 per game

-9.3

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-9.7

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Pistons win by 10+

49%

Stat comparison Current season

DETDAL

115.4

Points scored / game

114.1

107.8

Points allowed / game

117.4

45.9 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

37.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

74.4 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

27.0

Assists / game

27.6

8.0

Steals / game

9.0

7.2

Blocks / game

7.4

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 78% · DAL 22%

ESPN BPI

DET 63% · DAL 38%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		DAL
4-1	Record	3-2
115.4	Points scored / game	114.1
107.8	Points allowed / game	117.4
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W1	Current streak	W2
4-1	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.