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Mavericks vs Pistons prediction NBA · Thursday, January 14

Thu, Jan 14 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

105-120

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

13% win DALwin DET 87%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin14.3

Projected total225

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Thursday, January 14 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 87% chance to win and projects a 105-120 score (Mavericks – Pistons), about 225 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Pistons W1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Pistons 120 – 105 Mavericks, a margin of about 14.3 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / DAL -2.8 per game

+9.3

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Pistons

+14.3

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

63%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

17%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALDET

114.1

Points scored / game

115.4

117.4

Points allowed / game

107.8

49.0 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

37.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

76.7 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.6

Assists / game

27.0

9.0

Steals / game

8.0

7.4

Blocks / game

7.2

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 13% · DET 87%

ESPN BPI

DAL 29% · DET 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		DET
3-2	Record	4-1
114.1	Points scored / game	115.4
117.4	Points allowed / game	107.8
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W2	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.