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Suns vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, January 29

Fri, Jan 29 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

107-117

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

20% win PHXwin BOS 80%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin10.7

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Friday, January 29 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 80% chance to win and projects a 107-117 score (Suns – Celtics), about 224 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Celtics W3, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 117 – 107 Suns, a margin of about 10.7 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / PHX -1.4 per game

+8.0

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

+0.3

Expected marginfor Celtics

+10.7

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

52%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Suns win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHXBOS

111.9

Points scored / game

116.1

113.6

Points allowed / game

108.3

45.6 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

31.9 %

3-point %

38.6 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

73.9 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

44.3

25.3

Assists / game

27.8

8.7

Steals / game

9.0

5.3

Blocks / game

3.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 20% · BOS 80%

ESPN BPI

PHX 25% · BOS 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		BOS
1-2	Record	3-1
111.9	Points scored / game	116.1
113.6	Points allowed / game	108.3
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L1	Current streak	W3
1-2	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.