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Celtics vs Suns prediction NBA · Monday, January 4

Mon, Jan 4 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

115-109

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

69% win BOSwin PHX 31%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin6.1

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Monday, January 4 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 69% chance to win and projects a 115-109 score (Celtics – Suns), about 224 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Suns L1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 109 – 115 Celtics, a margin of about 6.1 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / BOS +6.6 per game

-8.0

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Suns

-6.1

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Celtics win by 10+

38%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSPHX

116.1

Points scored / game

111.9

108.3

Points allowed / game

113.6

46.5 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

38.6 %

3-point %

31.9 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

76.0 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

39.7

27.8

Assists / game

25.3

9.0

Steals / game

8.7

3.8

Blocks / game

5.3

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 69% · PHX 31%

ESPN BPI

BOS 66% · PHX 34%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		PHX
3-1	Record	1-2
116.1	Points scored / game	111.9
108.3	Points allowed / game	113.6
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W3	Current streak	L1
3-1	Last 10 games	1-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.