Cavaliers vs Raptors prediction NBA · Friday, January 29
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Friday, January 29 at 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 59% chance to win and projects a 113-116 score (Cavaliers – Raptors), about 229 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Raptors W1, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Raptors, but the Cavaliers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Raptors 116 – 113 Cavaliers, a margin of about 2.8 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CLETOR
Players to watch
Cavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111TOR
129-125W
135-92W112-102L117-94W129-99Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CLE | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 119.6 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 116.0 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| W3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 52-30 (+4.1) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Cavaliers
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.