Raptors vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 5
At a glance
The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Tuesday, January 5 at 7:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 54% chance to win and projects a 114-115 score (Raptors – Cavaliers), about 229 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Cavaliers 115 – 114 Raptors, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORCLE
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsCavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99CLE132-116L
114-106W
125-121W127-125 OTW121-111Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 119.6 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Cavaliers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.