76ers vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Thursday, January 28
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Thursday, January 28 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 54% chance to win and projects a 115-113 score (76ers – Pelicans), about 228 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Pelicans L4, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans and the 76ers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans) and Jordan Poole (Pelicans)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Pelicans 113 – 115 76ers, a margin of about 1.3 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans and the 76ers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PHINO
Players to watch
76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
PHI
106-100W
114-106W
127-116L
106-93W
114-109NO
107-106L123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91
PHI
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| PHI | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 114.4 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 113.5 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +0.7 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 45-37 (-0.2) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report 76ers
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.