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Lakers vs Pacers prediction NBA · Thursday, January 28

Thu, Jan 28 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, DAZN IND
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
119-111
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · home
75% win LALwin IND 25%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin8.3
Projected total230
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Thursday, January 28 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 75% chance to win and projects a 119-111 score (Lakers – Pacers), about 230 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Pacers L2, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Lakers dominate this matchup. The model projects Pacers 111 – 119 Lakers, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / LAL +3.5 per game
-8.2
Home-court advantagePacers at home
+2.3
InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 1 questionable
-2.4
Expected marginfor Pacers
-8.3

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+
7%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
25%
Lakers win by 10+
44%

Stat comparison Current season

LALIND
118.4
Points scored / game
113.2
114.3
Points allowed / game
118.8
52.9 %
Field goal %
47.1 %
39.2 %
3-point %
31.2 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
37.8
79.1 %
Free throw %
72.7 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
44.0
24.0
Assists / game
29.4
10.8
Steals / game
6.4
5.8
Blocks / game
4.8
16.6
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Dec 21INDupcomingLALJan 28LALthis gameIND

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 75% · IND 25%
ESPN BPI
LAL 54% · IND 46%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALIND
4-1Record2-3
118.4Points scored / game113.2
114.3Points allowed / game118.8
+3.5Adjusted margin / game-4.7
W1Current streakL2
4-1Last 10 games2-3
2-0 roadHome / road record0-2 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season19-63 (-8.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut
T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day
Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.