Pacers vs Lakers prediction NBA · Monday, December 21
At a glance
The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Monday, December 21 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 88% chance to win and projects a 107-121 score (Pacers – Lakers), about 228 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Lakers W1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Cameron Carr (Lakers)…. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Lakers dominate this matchup. The model projects Lakers 121 – 107 Pacers, a margin of about 14.5 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).
- The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
INDLAL
Players to watch
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsLakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / gameLuka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2reboundsRecent form
IND
123-120L
121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109LAL
127-105W
125-117W
132-123L
136-129W103-87
IND
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| IND | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 113.2 | Points scored / game | 118.4 |
| 118.8 | Points allowed / game | 114.3 |
| -4.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.5 |
| L2 | Current streak | W1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 19-63 (-8.0) | Last season | 53-29 (+1.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pacers
Injury report Lakers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.