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Hornets vs Spurs prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 27

Wed, Jan 27 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · DAZN SAS, DAZN CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

107-115

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

25% win CHAwin SA 75%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin8.4

Projected total222

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Wednesday, January 27 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 75% chance to win and projects a 107-115 score (Hornets – Spurs), about 222 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Spurs W3, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Spurs played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 115 – 107 Hornets, a margin of about 8.4 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / CHA +1.1 per game

+5.5

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSpurs played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Spurs

+8.4

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

45%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Hornets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHASA

111.6

Points scored / game

118.9

110.3

Points allowed / game

111.1

41.7 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

30.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

85.2 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

45.0

20.6

Assists / game

28.2

6.8

Steals / game

9.8

5.2

Blocks / game

6.6

19.0

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 25% · SA 75%

ESPN BPI

CHA 20% · SA 80%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHA		SA
3-2	Record	3-2
111.6	Points scored / game	118.9
110.3	Points allowed / game	111.1
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L1	Current streak	W3
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.