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Spurs vs Hornets prediction NBA · Thursday, December 31

Thu, Dec 31 · 1:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · NBA TV, DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

115-109

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

67% win SAwin CHA 33%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin5.4

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Thursday, December 31 at 1:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 67% chance to win and projects a 115-109 score (Spurs – Hornets), about 224 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Hornets L1, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hornets 109 – 115 Spurs, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / SA +6.6 per game

-5.5

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Hornets

-5.4

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Spurs win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

SACHA

118.9

Points scored / game

111.6

111.1

Points allowed / game

110.3

46.0 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

34.6 %

3-point %

30.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

78.3 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

47.4

28.2

Assists / game

20.6

9.8

Steals / game

6.8

6.6

Blocks / game

5.2

12.8

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 67% · CHA 33%

ESPN BPI

SA 73% · CHA 27%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		CHA
3-2	Record	3-2
118.9	Points scored / game	111.6
111.1	Points allowed / game	110.3
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
W3	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.