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Kings vs 76ers prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 27

Wed, Jan 27 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

107-120

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

15% win SACwin PHI 85%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin12.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Wednesday, January 27 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 85% chance to win and projects a 107-120 score (Kings – 76ers), about 227 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: 76ers W1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Jabari Walker (76ers) and Tacko Fall (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the 76ers dominate this matchup. The model projects 76ers 120 – 107 Kings, a margin of about 12.8 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' offense (114.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / SAC -10.1 per game

+10.9

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

-0.4

Expected marginfor 76ers

+12.8

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

59%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACPHI

110.2

Points scored / game

114.4

122.1

Points allowed / game

113.5

44.5 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

30.0 %

3-point %

32.6 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

73.1 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

42.2

22.8

Assists / game

24.6

6.8

Steals / game

9.8

2.5

Blocks / game

5.6

14.3

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 15% · PHI 85%

ESPN BPI

SAC 11% · PHI 89%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		PHI
0-4	Record	4-1
110.2	Points scored / game	114.4
122.1	Points allowed / game	113.5
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
L4	Current streak	W1
0-4	Last 10 games	4-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.