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76ers vs Kings prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 29

Tue, Dec 29 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

118-109

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

75% win PHIwin SAC 25%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin8.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Tuesday, December 29 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 75% chance to win and projects a 118-109 score (76ers – Kings), about 227 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Kings L4, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Dylan Cardwell (Kings) and Maxime Raynaud (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The 76ers start with a clear edge. The model projects Kings 109 – 118 76ers, a margin of about 8.2 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' offense (114.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / PHI +0.7 per game

-10.9

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.4

Expected marginfor Kings

-8.2

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

76ers win by 10+

44%

Stat comparison Current season

PHISAC

114.4

Points scored / game

110.2

113.5

Points allowed / game

122.1

42.8 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

32.6 %

3-point %

30.0 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

77.5 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

41.5

24.6

Assists / game

22.8

9.8

Steals / game

6.8

5.6

Blocks / game

2.5

12.6

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 75% · SAC 25%

ESPN BPI

PHI 85% · SAC 16%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		SAC
4-1	Record	0-4
114.4	Points scored / game	110.2
113.5	Points allowed / game	122.1
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
W1	Current streak	L4
4-1	Last 10 games	0-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.