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Suns vs Knicks prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 26

Tue, Jan 26 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

108-116

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

26% win PHXwin NY 74%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin7.9

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Tuesday, January 26 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 74% chance to win and projects a 108-116 score (Suns – Knicks), about 224 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Knicks W2, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Knicks dominate this matchup. The model projects Knicks 116 – 108 Suns, a margin of about 7.9 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / PHX -1.4 per game

+5.3

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

+0.3

Expected marginfor Knicks

+7.9

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

43%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Suns win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHXNY

111.9

Points scored / game

114.5

113.6

Points allowed / game

110.0

45.6 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

31.9 %

3-point %

35.9 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

73.9 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

48.2

25.3

Assists / game

26.8

8.7

Steals / game

7.2

5.3

Blocks / game

4.4

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 26% · NY 74%

ESPN BPI

PHX 27% · NY 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		NY
1-2	Record	2-3
111.9	Points scored / game	114.5
113.6	Points allowed / game	110.0
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
L1	Current streak	W2
1-2	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.