Knicks vs Suns prediction NBA · Thursday, December 31
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Thursday, December 31 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 61% chance to win and projects a 113-110 score (Knicks – Suns), about 223 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Suns L1, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns and the Knicks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Knicks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 110 – 113 Knicks, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns and the Knicks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NYPHX
Players to watch
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8reboundsSuns
Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / gameDevin BookerG · #155.3assists
Khaman MaluachC · #107.3reboundsRecent form
NY
106-100L
107-103L
111-102W
111-97W
133-127PHX
123-103L
119-116L
124-83W
131-122L
125-114
NY
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NY | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-2 |
| 114.5 | Points scored / game | 111.9 |
| 110.0 | Points allowed / game | 113.6 |
| +3.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.4 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 1-2 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 53-29 (+6.3) | Last season | 45-37 (+1.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Knicks
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.