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Hawks vs Pistons prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 26

Tue, Jan 26 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
111-117
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
4-1 · home
30% win ATLwin DET 70%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin6.6
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Tuesday, January 26 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 70% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Hawks – Pistons), about 228 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Pistons W1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Hawks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pistons 117 – 111 Hawks, a margin of about 6.6 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / ATL +2.7 per game
+3.8
Home-court advantagePistons at home
+2.3
InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
+0.6
Expected marginfor Pistons
+6.6

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+
39%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Hawks win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLDET
119.0
Points scored / game
115.4
115.8
Points allowed / game
107.8
46.9 %
Field goal %
45.9 %
34.8 %
3-point %
37.9 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
36.4
72.8 %
Free throw %
74.4 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
46.8
32.2
Assists / game
27.0
10.2
Steals / game
8.0
3.6
Blocks / game
7.2
14.0
Turnovers / game
15.6

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
DET
WBOS121-113WMIA128-111WPHI106-93LNY111-97WCHA97-89

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 22DETupcomingATLDec 23DETupcomingATLJan 26ATLthis gameDET

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 30% · DET 70%
ESPN BPI
ATL 37% · DET 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLDET
2-3Record4-1
119.0Points scored / game115.4
115.8Points allowed / game107.8
+2.7Adjusted margin / game+6.5
L3Current streakW1
2-3Last 10 games4-1
2-1 roadHome / road record2-0 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season60-22 (+8.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut
Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.