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Pistons vs Hawks prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
4-1 · away
Projected score
114-113
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · home
51% win DETwin ATL 49%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin0.4
Projected total226
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Wednesday, December 23 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 51% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Pistons – Hawks), about 226 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Hawks L3, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hawks 113 – 114 Pistons, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

  • The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / DET +6.5 per game
-3.8
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
Back-to-backPistons played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable
-0.6
Expected marginfor Hawks
-0.4

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
20%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Pistons win by 10+
22%

Stat comparison Current season

DETATL
115.4
Points scored / game
119.0
107.8
Points allowed / game
115.8
45.9 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
37.9 %
3-point %
34.8 %
36.4
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
74.4 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
41.4
27.0
Assists / game
32.2
8.0
Steals / game
10.2
7.2
Blocks / game
3.6
15.6
Turnovers / game
14.0

Players to watch

Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DET
WBOS121-113WMIA128-111WPHI106-93LNY111-97WCHA97-89
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 22DETupcomingATLDec 23DETthis gameATLJan 26ATLupcomingDET

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
DET 51% · ATL 49%
ESPN BPI
DET 52% · ATL 49%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DETATL
4-1Record2-3
115.4Points scored / game119.0
107.8Points allowed / game115.8
+6.5Adjusted margin / game+2.7
W1Current streakL3
4-1Last 10 games2-3
2-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
60-22 (+8.2)Last season46-36 (+2.4)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut
Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.