Timberwolves vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Monday, January 25
At a glance
The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Monday, January 25 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 54% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Timberwolves – Grizzlies), about 230 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Timberwolves played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Grizzlies 114 – 115 Timberwolves, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MINMEM
Players to watch
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2reboundsGrizzlies
Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / gameTy JeromeG · #26.5assists
Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5reboundsRecent form
MIN
131-106W
115-93W
117-94L
127-125 OTL
119-114MEM
116-98W
123-103W111-108W
123-112W110-105Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
MEM
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| MIN | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-0 |
| 118.7 | Points scored / game | 115.2 |
| 112.6 | Points allowed / game | 117.3 |
| +5.2 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.8 |
| L2 | Current streak | W4 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 4-0 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 49-33 (+3.4) | Last season | 25-57 (-6.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Timberwolves
Injury report Grizzlies
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.