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Grizzlies vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Saturday, November 21

Sat, Nov 21 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · DAZN MIN, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

112-119

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

28% win MEMwin MIN 72%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin7.4

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Saturday, November 21 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 72% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Grizzlies – Timberwolves), about 231 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Timberwolves 119 – 112 Grizzlies, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / MEM -1.8 per game

+6.9

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+7.4

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

42%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Grizzlies win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MEMMIN

115.2

Points scored / game

118.7

117.3

Points allowed / game

112.6

45.3 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

39.1 %

3-point %

38.4 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

82.8 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

51.6

25.0

Assists / game

27.0

6.3

Steals / game

9.2

6.3

Blocks / game

4.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 28% · MIN 72%

ESPN BPI

MEM 25% · MIN 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		MIN
4-0	Record	3-2
115.2	Points scored / game	118.7
117.3	Points allowed / game	112.6
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W4	Current streak	L2
4-0	Last 10 games	3-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.