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Mavericks vs Bulls prediction NBA · Monday, January 25

Mon, Jan 25 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

117-116

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

52% win DALwin CHI 48%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin0.6

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Monday, January 25 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 52% chance to win and projects a 117-116 score (Mavericks – Bulls), about 233 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Bulls L3, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Bulls 116 – 117 Mavericks, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / DAL -2.8 per game

-4.4

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+1.5

Expected marginfor Bulls

-0.6

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Mavericks win by 10+

23%

Stat comparison Current season

DALCHI

114.1

Points scored / game

115.6

117.4

Points allowed / game

124.1

49.0 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

34.6 %

3-point %

27.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

76.7 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.6

Assists / game

24.4

9.0

Steals / game

9.0

7.4

Blocks / game

4.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 52% · CHI 48%

ESPN BPI

DAL 65% · CHI 35%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		CHI
3-2	Record	1-4
114.1	Points scored / game	115.6
117.4	Points allowed / game	124.1
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
W2	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.