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Bulls vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, December 19

Sat, Dec 19 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

112-119

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

29% win CHIwin DAL 71%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin6.8

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Saturday, December 19 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 71% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Bulls – Mavericks), about 232 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bulls played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Mavericks, but the Bulls have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Mavericks 119 – 112 Bulls, a margin of about 6.8 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / CHI -7.2 per game

+4.4

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBulls played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

-1.5

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+6.8

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

40%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Bulls win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHIDAL

115.6

Points scored / game

114.1

124.1

Points allowed / game

117.4

42.1 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

27.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

78.6 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

24.4

Assists / game

27.6

9.0

Steals / game

9.0

4.8

Blocks / game

7.4

17.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 29% · DAL 71%

ESPN BPI

CHI 25% · DAL 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		DAL
1-4	Record	3-2
115.6	Points scored / game	114.1
124.1	Points allowed / game	117.4
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L3	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.