Raptors vs Celtics prediction NBA · Monday, January 25
At a glance
The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Monday, January 25 at 7:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 65% chance to win and projects a 109-114 score (Raptors – Celtics), about 224 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Celtics W3, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Raptors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Celtics 114 – 109 Raptors, a margin of about 4.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORBOS
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsCeltics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / gameJayson TatumF · #08.0assistsJayson TatumF · #06.2reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99BOS
125-120 OTL121-113W
107-103W134-99W
125-124 OTHead-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
BOS
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 116.1 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 108.3 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 56-26 (+7.7) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Celtics
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.