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Celtics vs Raptors prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11

Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETScotiabank Arena

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

110-112

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · home

46% win BOSwin TOR 54%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin1.4

Projected total222

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Wednesday, November 11 at 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 54% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Celtics – Raptors), about 222 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Raptors W1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Raptors 112 – 110 Celtics, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Celtics need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +5.0 / BOS +6.6 per game

-1.6

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesTOR: 2 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Raptors

+1.4

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Celtics win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSTOR

116.1

Points scored / game

115.4

108.3

Points allowed / game

109.5

46.5 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

38.6 %

3-point %

30.4 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

76.0 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

45.8

27.8

Assists / game

27.3

9.0

Steals / game

14.3

3.8

Blocks / game

5.5

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 46% · TOR 54%

ESPN BPI

BOS 63% · TOR 37%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

BOS		TOR
3-1	Record	3-1
116.1	Points scored / game	115.4
108.3	Points allowed / game	109.5
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+5.0
W3	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	3-1
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	46-36 (+2.8)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.