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Bucks vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Saturday, January 23

Sat, Jan 23 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

110-120

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

23% win MILwin DEN 77%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin9.3

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Saturday, January 23 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 77% chance to win and projects a 110-120 score (Bucks – Nuggets), about 230 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Nuggets dominate this matchup. The model projects Nuggets 120 – 110 Bucks, a margin of about 9.3 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / MIL -6.4 per game

+9.0

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBucks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.6

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+9.3

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

48%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

24%

Bucks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MILDEN

111.4

Points scored / game

119.2

119.0

Points allowed / game

116.2

44.9 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

34.0 %

3-point %

32.8 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

71.6 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

24.6

Assists / game

26.0

5.8

Steals / game

10.0

4.0

Blocks / game

4.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 23% · DEN 77%

ESPN BPI

MIL 18% · DEN 82%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		DEN
1-4	Record	2-2
111.4	Points scored / game	119.2
119.0	Points allowed / game	116.2
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L1	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	2-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.