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Nuggets vs Bucks prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 12

Tue, Jan 12 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

116-114

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

55% win DENwin MIL 45%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin1.5

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Tuesday, January 12 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 55% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Nuggets – Bucks), about 230 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Bucks L1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Bucks 114 – 116 Nuggets, a margin of about 1.5 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / DEN +2.6 per game

-9.0

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNuggets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Bucks

-1.5

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nuggets win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

DENMIL

119.2

Points scored / game

111.4

116.2

Points allowed / game

119.0

45.8 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

32.8 %

3-point %

34.0 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

79.6 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

49.8

26.0

Assists / game

24.6

10.0

Steals / game

5.8

4.8

Blocks / game

4.0

15.3

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 55% · MIL 45%

ESPN BPI

DEN 71% · MIL 29%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		MIL
2-2	Record	1-4
119.2	Points scored / game	111.4
116.2	Points allowed / game	119.0
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W1	Current streak	L1
2-2	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.