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Cavaliers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, January 23

Sat, Jan 23 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 · away

Projected score

120-111

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

76% win CLEwin DAL 24%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin8.7

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Saturday, January 23 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 76% chance to win and projects a 120-111 score (Cavaliers – Mavericks), about 230 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Cavaliers start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 111 – 120 Cavaliers, a margin of about 8.7 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / CLE +3.0 per game

-5.8

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · CLE: 0 out, 1 questionable

-3.6

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-8.7

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Cavaliers win by 10+

46%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEDAL

119.6

Points scored / game

114.1

116.0

Points allowed / game

117.4

46.8 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

36.7 %

3-point %

34.6 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

79.3 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

44.2

26.3

Assists / game

27.6

8.8

Steals / game

9.0

7.5

Blocks / game

7.4

17.3

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111L

114-111

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 76% · DAL 24%

ESPN BPI

CLE 57% · DAL 43%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		DAL
3-1	Record	3-2
119.6	Points scored / game	114.1
116.0	Points allowed / game	117.4
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W3	Current streak	W2
3-1	Last 10 games	3-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.