Mavericks vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Saturday, November 14
At a glance
The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 77% chance to win and projects a 110-120 score (Mavericks – Cavaliers), about 230 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Cavaliers dominate this matchup. The model projects Cavaliers 120 – 110 Mavericks, a margin of about 9.2 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALCLE
Players to watch
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8reboundsCavaliers
Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game
James HardenG · #16.8assists
Evan MobleyC · #410.0reboundsRecent form
DAL
128-110W
121-105L
122-106W
113-109W
120-96CLE
132-116L
114-106W
125-121W
127-125 OTW
121-111
DAL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 114.1 | Points scored / game | 119.6 |
| 117.4 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| -2.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 26-56 (-5.5) | Last season | 52-30 (+4.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Cavaliers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.