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Bucks vs Warriors prediction NBA · Friday, January 22

Fri, Jan 22 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

113-116

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

40% win MILwin GS 60%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin3.3

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Friday, January 22 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 60% chance to win and projects a 113-116 score (Bucks – Warriors), about 228 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Warriors W2, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Warriors, but the Bucks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 116 – 113 Bucks, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs -6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' offense (115.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / MIL -6.4 per game

+5.6

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWarriors played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Warriors

+3.3

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

30%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Bucks win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

MILGS

111.4

Points scored / game

115.5

119.0

Points allowed / game

116.4

44.9 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

34.0 %

3-point %

36.9 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

71.6 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

43.8

24.6

Assists / game

25.6

5.8

Steals / game

9.6

4.0

Blocks / game

3.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 40% · GS 60%

ESPN BPI

MIL 21% · GS 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		GS
1-4	Record	2-3
111.4	Points scored / game	115.5
119.0	Points allowed / game	116.4
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
L1	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.