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Warriors vs Bucks prediction NBA · Sunday, December 20

Sun, Dec 20 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-115

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

51% win GSwin MIL 49%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin0.3

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Sunday, December 20 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 51% chance to win and projects a 116-115 score (Warriors – Bucks), about 230 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Bucks L1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Bucks 115 – 116 Warriors, a margin of about 0.3 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Warriors' offense (115.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / GS -0.8 per game

-5.6

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+3.1

Expected marginfor Bucks

-0.3

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Warriors win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

GSMIL

115.5

Points scored / game

111.4

116.4

Points allowed / game

119.0

45.0 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

36.9 %

3-point %

34.0 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

82.2 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

49.8

25.6

Assists / game

24.6

9.6

Steals / game

5.8

3.8

Blocks / game

4.0

16.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 51% · MIL 49%

ESPN BPI

GS 65% · MIL 35%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		MIL
2-3	Record	1-4
115.5	Points scored / game	111.4
116.4	Points allowed / game	119.0
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W2	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.