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Jazz vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, January 22

Fri, Jan 22 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

111-120

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

22% win UTAHwin PHX 78%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin9.7

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Friday, January 22 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 78% chance to win and projects a 111-120 score (Jazz – Suns), about 231 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Suns L1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Suns dominate this matchup. The model projects Suns 120 – 111 Jazz, a margin of about 9.7 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+5.6

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Suns

+9.7

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

49%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHPHX

116.1

Points scored / game

111.9

124.3

Points allowed / game

113.6

45.4 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

33.9 %

3-point %

31.9 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

76.6 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

39.7

26.8

Assists / game

25.3

5.0

Steals / game

8.7

6.4

Blocks / game

5.3

17.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 22% · PHX 78%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 42% · PHX 58%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		PHX
1-4	Record	1-2
116.1	Points scored / game	111.9
124.3	Points allowed / game	113.6
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L3	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.