Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Suns vs Jazz prediction NBA · Friday, November 20

Fri, Nov 20 · 9:30 PM ETDelta Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

118-113

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

66% win PHXwin UTAH 34%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin5.1

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Friday, November 20 at 9:30 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 66% chance to win and projects a 118-113 score (Suns – Jazz), about 231 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Jazz L3, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Suns, but the Jazz have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Jazz 113 – 118 Suns, a margin of about 5.1 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs -1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / PHX -1.4 per game

-5.6

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Jazz

-5.1

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Suns win by 10+

35%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXUTAH

111.9

Points scored / game

116.1

113.6

Points allowed / game

124.3

45.6 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

31.9 %

3-point %

33.9 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

73.9 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

46.8

25.3

Assists / game

26.8

8.7

Steals / game

5.0

5.3

Blocks / game

6.4

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 66% · UTAH 34%

ESPN BPI

PHX 49% · UTAH 51%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

PHX		UTAH
1-2	Record	1-4
111.9	Points scored / game	116.1
113.6	Points allowed / game	124.3
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
L1	Current streak	L3
1-2	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.